SCOOPS' WEEKEND CFB PICKS

I’m heading out to Vegas on Saturday. Won’t be able to bet on all the games I like, but am taking a look at a few certain games. Here’s my picks for the week.

MINNESOTA (+14) over Purdue: One of the rules that I may not 100% always follow, but always, 100%, take into consideration while viewing a line regarding college football is “beware of the road, double digit favorite.” In some cases, it doesn’t matter, like with USC last week in Lincoln. But Purdue isn’t in that class where you can ignore it and not take it into consideration. I think Purdue wins, scores and scores 45+ points and throws for over 500 yards, and Ryan Collado & Jamal Harris are going to have nightmares of Dorien Bryant that may haunt them for the rest of their lives, but Purdue does not have a good defense, and Minnesota will be able to keep pace on offense. Scoops’ Pick: Purdue 55, Minnesota 45.

OHIO STATE (-22.5) over Northwestern: Northwestern suffered an even more embarrassing loss than Minnesota did last weekend, losing to Duke at home. Meanwhile, Ohio State passed their first actual test kicking some of the starch out of the Washington bandwagon. Dangerous spread since OSU isn’t exactly scoring in bunches right now, but expect a big dose of Beanie Wells and a runaway Buckeye win in C-Bus. Scoops’ Pick: Ohio State 34, Northwestern 9.

Illinois (-2.5) over INDIANA: Crazy game to figure. Indiana had a close win over Akron, while Illinois blasted Syracuse on the road. I’m leaning towards the team with the best athlete, which is an edge to Illinois because the ball is in Juice Williams is a little bit better than Kellen Lewis and Juice can make things happen to multiple people, whereas I think Lewis can be taken out of his game if Hardy is somewhat negated. I like Illinois to barely cover, but I’m not touching this game with a 10 ft. pole, at least until I know a bit more about each team than what Syracuse & Akron can show. Scoops’ Pick: Illinois 38, Indiana 34.

MICHIGAN (+3) over Penn State: Big Ten game of the week. Only thing these two teams have in common is they both thrashed Notre Dame at home. Henne being out hurts Michigan because he’d be able to handle what PSU’s defense can throw at them a bit better mentally than Mallett can. But I’m sticking with my preseason prediction that this is Penn State’s only Big Ten conference loss. Morelli, while strong armed, isn’t the dynamic athlete that has plagued Michigan thus far and I see a heavy dose of Mike Hart to ease the pain of Mallett. Michigan gets back to their roots slamming the ball on the ground and does just enough. Scoops’ Pick: Michigan 24, Penn State 20.

WISCONSIN (-8) over Iowa: I’d feel a bit better about Iowa if they had a QB that somewhat resembled Big Ten talent. Wisconsin is scoring points & that will continue. I expect a close 1st half and Wisconsin to pull away in the 2nd half. Scoops’ Pick: Wisconsin 34, Iowa 23 [LEAD PIPE LOCK]

NOTRE DAME (+12.5) over Michigan State: Betting with Notre Dame? I’d say it’s more of a “learned my lesson” with Michigan State. MSU’s offense isn’t good enough to be a double digit favorite on the road versus anyone right now. I expect a South Bend style effort in defeat by Notre Dame, but enough to cover the spread. Scoops’ Pick: Michigan State 20, Notre Dame 14.

National Games:

Washington (+6.5) over UCLA: How is Jake Locker going to respond after the whipping he took versus Ohio State? Call it Midwest coast bias, but I think UCLA is overrated and has been somewhat put a tier up than what they are since they shocked USC last December. They got embarrassed in their bowl game to a mediocre Florida State and got smashed at Utah last weekend. I think Washington pulls the outright upset here. Scoops’ Pick: Washington 38, UCLA 30.

Texas Tech (-6) over OKLAHOMA STATE: OSU suffered an ugly loss last week and Texas Tech thinks they may have something this season. Definitely not enough to contend with the Sooners or Longhorns in the Big XII South, but enough to get a 10 point victory in Stillwater & cover the spread. Scoops’ Pick: Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 35.

ARKANSAS (-6.5) over Kentucky: Kentucky pulled the upset of the weekend last week over Louisville, but a home win over an interstate rival is a bit different than going on the road in SEC country. Go with the better athlete, which is Darren McFadden, and go with the Razorbacks to avenge last week’s last second loss at Bama. Buyer beware of any game where Houston Nutt is involved in coaching. Scoops’ Pick: Arkansas 31, Kentucky 20.

ARIZONA STATE (-12) over Oregon State: Dennis Erickson has ASU off hot, which should be good enough for the win & cover. Plus, Oregon State is quite turnover prone (not at Auburn or Minnesota level, but they don’t exactly cherish ball possession). Buyer beware of ASU’s penchant for acquiring penalties at an alarming rate. But then again, what do you expect from a bunch of ASU students coached by a man who has had nothing but thugs everywhere he’s gone? Scoops’ Pick: Arizona State 34, Oregon State 17.

Last Week ATS: 7-4. Season Record ATS: 13-9