Scoops’ 2008 Big Ten Predictions

As I look back at my 2007 picks, I was close on some, far off on others:
-Ohio State: I thought they were a year away last year. They benefits from a soft Big Ten.
-Illinois: A bit ahead of schedule. You can thank Rashard Mendenhall for that.
-Wisconsin: About where I thought they’d be.
-Penn State: About where I thought they’d be.
-Northwestern: About where I thought they’d be.
-Iowa: About where I thought they’d be.
-Minnesota: Below where I thought they’d be. I did think a 3-5 Big Ten record.
-Michigan: WAY below where I thought they’d be. Actually, Big Ten wise, they weren’t that far off, playing Ohio State with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line.
-Michigan State: Ahead of where I thought they’d be: I thought it would take a year to get rid of the John L. Smith jugheads.
-Purdue: About where I thought they’d be.
-Indiana: Ahead of where I thought they’d be. I thought the hangover of Hoeppner would hang all season with them.

As I look at 2008, I think overall the Big Ten is down compared to the SEC and the Pac-Ten. But it will be interesting to see the strides that Michigan State, Indiana & Minnesota make this year.

1) Ohio State (12-0, 8-0; BCS National Championship Game): One thing that sticks out to me when looking at the Buckeyes is Todd Boeckman’s completion percentage, which was tops in the Big Ten, along with TD passes, which was tops in conference games. Add the receiving corps that exists along with an already dangerous Beanie Wells in the backfield and a swarming defense and you have a Big Ten team that will be tough to beat. I think they benefit from getting USC early. I think they beat them because of this. If it was a postseason game, I think USC wins. But they’re breaking in Sanchez.
Possible Game they may lose but shouldn’t: @ Wisconsin. It’s hard to say that you shouldn’t ever lose to Wisconsin in Madison. But if there’s a game to trip them up, it’s going to be this night game.

T-2) Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2: CapitalOne Bowl): Look for a trip out to Fresno State as an early trip up for Wisconsin, especially considering their QB concerns. They then have a 3 game conference gauntlet to open the season traveling to Michigan and then hosting Ohio State & Penn State. I do see them pulling out of this 2-1 in conference play, losing to Ohio State. After that, 6 winnable games, with the only one I see them dropping being a trip to East Lansing against the Spartans. However, I see them not getting an at-large BCS berth due to the setback at Fresno and it being awarded to……

T-2) Penn State (10-2, 6-2, Rose Bowl): The schedule starts out nicely with 4 non-conference games they should win in Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, @ Syracuse & Temple. Illinois comes to town which should lead to a revenge factor for PSU, and then a trip looms to West Lafayette. PSU should be 6-0 heading into Madison. I do see Wisconsin coming out on top though (the home team generally has owned this series lately). With Michigan in town sandwiched between the Badgers & Buckeyes, PSU should close out with 3 consecutive wins, the toughest being Michigan State at home the last game of the season. PSU will get the Rose Bowl berth due to the Rose Bowl loving Big Ten teams & tradition.

T-4) Illinois (8-4, 5-3 Outback Bowl): They’ll open up with a lose to possible BCS team Missouri, but I seem them handling the rest and dropping games only to Penn State, Wisconsin, & Ohio State during the conference season. The talent is assembled in Champaign, Juice is only going to get better, and Vontae Davis is going to be a 1st round pick in the 2009 draft.

T-4) Michigan State (8-4, 5-3 Alamo Bowl): Open up at Cal, which I’m picking as a loss, but then should win their next 6 before Ohio State comes to town. I also see them dropping a game to their in-state rivals before winning 2 of their final 3, dropping the trip to Happy Valley. MSU is another team that is gathering the talent.

6) Purdue (8-4, 4-4; Champps Sports Bowl): Purdue has their bye week the first week of the season, and I see them being able to knock off Oregon at home as they try to adjust to life without Dennis Dixon. They open up conference play with the two heavyweights in Penn State & Ohio State, before getting 3 winnable games in Northwestern, Minnesota & Michigan. Two road losses loom at Michigan State & Iowa before they win back the Oaken Bucket the final week of the season. Who’s going to replace Dorien Bryant remains the question. And can Purdue feed off some emotion with it being Joe Tiller’s last year? The answers to these two questions hold the keys to it being an average season or a good season for the Boilers.

T-7) Michigan (6-6, 3-5; Insight Bowl): The transition from Carr to RichRod will be a rough one for this season. But mark my words: Rich Rodriguez is the WORST thing that could have happened to Ohio State. He’ll get his players to run his spread offense, and within 2 years, they’ll be in the top 3 team in the Big Ten. However, look for them to drop their opener to pesky Utah, start out 0-3 in the Big Ten, but win 3 of their last 5 to qualify for a bowl bid, which will thrill the Insight Bowl folks, because they won’t get the opportunity to see Michigan for a long time.

T-7) Minnesota 6-6, 3-5, Motor City Bowl): Is the talent good enough for the Gophers to compete this year? Look for them to go 3-1 in non-conference play, dropping a road game to Bowling Green, but knocking off Indiana (Minnesota is their first road game) to win their first conference game. After Illinois on 10/11, they close with 6 winnable games. I expect them to drop games to Purdue, Michigan (although close), and Wisconsin, but to defeat Northwestern & Iowa to end up 6-6 and in Detroit. Questions for the Gophers: How much can Ted Roof improve the defense simply by scheme? Does the better, but young, talent in the secondary help them this year? Can they get a pass rush? They have depth on the DL, but can anybody emerge? And can Weber take off from his first year to his second year like Kellen Lewis & Juice Williams did last year? If he can limit the turnovers, the offense can be good. A RB has to emerge, as does a #2 & #3 receiver.

T-9) Indiana (6-6, 2-6, No bowl): The Hoosiers should start out 3-0 with a cupcake opening, but will manage to only defeat Northwestern & Iowa, who are both at home for conference wins. Can someone step up and take over for the departed James Hardy? IU closes with Wisconsin, and then on the road at Penn State and at Purdue, which won’t help matters.

T-9) Iowa (5-7, 2-6, no bowl): The Hawks should be 4-1 after the first 5 games, but then have a tough 4 game stretch against MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin & Illinois, with only Wisconsin at home. They then get Penn State at home, which is not a picnic. I think they do knock off Purdue but lose the Metrodome finale against the Gophers. Who will step up at RB? And can Jake Christensen finally figure out how to play Big Ten QB?

11) Northwestern (4-8, 0-8): A winnable 4 game opening stretch will be the highlight for the Wildcats. If the OL can gel quickly, they will be able to move the ball on a lot of Big Ten teams and will be in a lot of games. But the defense is just too poor. And the conference schedule did them no favors with the teams they could possibly beat all being on the road.