Scoops' CFA Picks (brought to you by....Dr. Pepper!)

What goes around, comes around in the world of football gambling. One week you’re up; the next week you’re down. Such is life. Anyway, I will try to get back to a positive dollar figure for the week with the 2nd weekend of Big Ten play and even offer up my 2nd LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE WEEK (1-0 thus far in 2008).

Last Week: 4-6
Season: 30-25
Net Gain/Loss: + $52.00

MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Indiana: This line opened up at 8 and has moved down a bit. The bottom line is that Indiana hasn’t stopped anybody on defense this season, are going on the road for the first time, and are 0-3 versus the spread in 2008 while Minnesota played the best team & player they’ll face all season last week in Terrell Pryor, so the Kellen Lewis factor shouldn’t be as high considering the rest of the talent around the field. Add to the fact that Minnesota is 3-1 against the spread in 2008 and Brewster is 6-2-1 versus the spread in his 9 Big Ten games. As Captain Jack Ross said in his opening statement in the trial of LCpl. Harold W. Dawson and Pfc. Louden Downey, “These are the facts, and they are indisputibal.”
SCOOPS’ PICK: MINNESOTA 38, INDIANA 27

Ohio State (-1.5) over WISCONSIN: Yeah, I get it that Bielema is 16-0 at Camp Randall. Yeah, I get it that it’s going to be a night game and the entire state of Wisconsin is going to be at a 6.5% BAL. I get it that Wisconsin beat Ohio State in a similar game in 2003 at night. Here’s what the Badgers don’t understand but will by the end of the night: TERRELL PRYOR. Since Tressel took over in 2001, Ohio State has had a dynamic offense only two of those years: 2005 after Troy Smith took over for Justin Zwick after the loss to Texas and the following season in 2006 when Smith won the Heisman. The Badgers did NOT face Ohio State in either of those seasons. Pryor & a healthier Beanie Wells add a complete new dimension to the Buckeye offense; one that the Badgers will be incapable of handling.
SCOOPS’ PICK: OHIO STATE 34, WISCONSIN 20

[SCOOPS’ LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE WEEK]
MICHIGAN STATE (-8) over Iowa: Did the Spartans flex their offensive muscle last weekend or is Indiana’s defense that poor? I must defer to the Spartans’ manhandling of Notre Dame the previous week to say that Michigan State is a good football team. Javon Ringer is moving up into top-5 man crush territory, and Iowa has lost two bad games. They have 2 bad QB’s, which does NOT equal 1 average QB. Iowa looks like they may be in for a tough season.
SCOOPS’ PICK: MICHIGAN STATE 27, IOWA 13

Penn State (-13) over PURDUE: Purdue’s defense had a rough week against an offense that had shown no ability whatsoever up to that point. Now they welcome the SpreadHD that’s being unleashed in the Big Ten. The funny thing about the Penn State-Illinois game last weekend was that I didn’t think Illinois played that poorly. Penn State is just a 14 point better football team than Illinois. Consider that Missouri beat Illinois by a similar margin and you know what type of team you have in Penn State.
SCOOPS’ PICK: PENN STATE 38, PURDUE 21

Illinois (+125) over MICHIGAN: Don’t be fooled by the win over Wisconsin. Michigan has not figured it all out yet, and Illinois will give a lesson to 100,000+ people on what their offense can potentially look like in a year or 2. I like the 3 point dogs to win outright.
SCOOPS’ PICK: ILLINOIS 27, MICHIGAN 20

Missouri (-10.5) over NEBRASKA: The Chase Daniel circus comes to Lincoln, and it ain’t going to be stopped by anyone NOT named Oklahoma or Texas in the Big XII.
SCOOPS’ PICK: MISSOURI 44, NEBRASKA 20

Northern Illinois (+16) over TENNESSEE: Ah, the Gophers opening opponent finds themselves back in Scoops’ picks. The reason is I think this a nice line against a team that is just not that good. After 2 losses, the Huskies have gotten back on track including an impressive 37-0 win last weekend over Eastern Michigan. Look for the Vols to win, but the Huskies to cover.
SCOOPS’ PICK: TENNESSEE 30, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27

SOUTHERN CAL (-16.5) over Oregon: USC read their own press clippings and got Admiral Ackbar trapped in Corvallis last Thursday. One thing about USC; they know how to respond and rarely are caught with their pants down twice in a row. Along with that, their probably the one team in college football that you don’t bet against when they are out to prove a point.
SCOOPS’ PICK: USC 38, OREGON 14

NEW MEXICO (-12) over Wyoming: All I know is that last week versus Bowling Green, Wyoming coaches threatened to replace any player that turned the ball over. They went through 4 QB’s in a 5 turnover performance that ended up in a Falcon route. Now this team is going to go on the road and cover in what is usually a house of horrors for Mountain West opponents?
SCOOPS’ PICK: NEW MEXICO 34, WYOMING 10

Ball State (-8) over TOLEDO: Ball State can light it up with the best of them, is the class of the MAC this year, and Toledo lost to freaking Florida International last weekend. Enough said!SCOOPS’ PICK: BALL STATE 45, TOLEDO 28