SCOOPS' 2009 BIG TEN FORECAST

Looking back on my 2008 Big Ten picks, it was the usual way: close on some, way off on others. Seems to sum up my life
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Biggest Misfires: Iowa & Northwestern-I picked Iowa to go 5-7 and no bowl game. They ended up as arguably the best team in the Big Ten at the end of the season with their defeat of Penn State and their dismantlings of Minnesota and South Carolina in their bowl game. I had Northwestern going 0-8 in the Big Ten. After watching last year, I developed a man-crush on Pat Fitzgerald and won’t doubt his coaching abilities ever again.

Pretty much right on: Minnesota (one game off), Michigan State, & Penn State (one game off, but had them penciled in for the Rose Bowl which they attended)As I look at 2009, the Big Ten overall has 9 good teams, but no elite one.

I think it’s the most wide open the conference has been in quite a while, and it wouldn’t shock me if any of these 9 teams ended up winning it. The problem with the Big Ten right now is the top 3 are WAY below the top 3 of the Big XII or the SEC right now and don’t have any top-1 to compete with USC. So another pair of BCS losses should be expected come January.

T-1) Michigan State (11-1, 7-1; Rose Bowl): Their schedule sets up rather nicely. They don’t see Ohio State and get Penn State & Iowa in East Lansing. They do have road trips to Wisconsin, Illinois & Minnesota, but should have the ability to go 2-1 in that stretch. The tone setter for the season will be the trip to Notre Dame. Plus, Dantonio is showing that he can recruit AND coach, which is a combo that is not totally out there.

Possible Game they may lose but shouldn’t: @ Wisconsin & @ Minnesota. This is where they drop one of their 2 games. I have it being @ Minnesota because the Halloween Night game factor plus the chance that there may be a bit of a chill in the air that may sneak up on Sparty.

T-1) Ohio State (10-2, 7-1: Sugar Bowl): Losing most of the WR crew, Beanie Wells and all 3 starting LB’s would hurt most programs. And it will cost OSU a shot at the title as they’ll drop their big showdown against USC despite the Trojans breaking in a new QB. Still, Pryor will take another step towards being better than Vince Young. I have a feeling that Tressel is going to loosen the leash on Pryor a bit more and games like his performance in the Fiesta Bowl against Texas are going to be the norm. I have them dropping their conference game to Penn State simply because PSU will be jacked for that one. Not everyone wins every game that they should simply because they’re better.

T-3) Iowa (9-3, 5-3, CapitalOne Bowl): I actually like this Iowa team a lot. They return 8 out of 10 in the OL two-deeps, have a solid DB corps, and Stanzi is better than people give him credit for. Problem is their schedule. Their 4 Big Ten road games are @ Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State & Ohio State. OUCH! This team may be the best if they played every conference game on a neutral field each week, but with that schedule, I have them coming into 3rd and being one of the teams that actually represents the Big Ten well in their bowl game against their SEC victim.

T-3) Illinois (7-5, 5-3 Outback Bowl): They miss Iowa and Wisconsin, so that helps, and get doormats Purdue & Indiana on the road, which gives them a chip & a chair in home games with Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State & Northwestern. Mizzou is also reloading so the St. Louis opener could go their way as well. I don’t like their defense enough to make a title run, but the offense should be pretty explosive and be the best in the conference.

T-5) Penn State (8-4, 4-4 Champps Bowl): I just think the loss of 3 of their OL is too much to overcome and this is the one team that I think will slip a bit that most people are saying will be thinking conference or national title. The SpreadHD thrived because of a veteran offensive line and Clark & Royster won’t have that luxury this year. Throw in replacing Butler & Williams at receiver and all the DB’s and you have a team that will drop a few more games than it did the previous year. The non-conference schedule is a joke and get 2 of their 3 toughest games at home with the Buckeyes & Hawkeyes coming to Happy Valley. Still think they drop off though.

T-5) Northwestern (8-4, 4-4; Insight Bowl): All hail, Pat Fitzgerald. I don’t trust Kafka at QB since he throws like he plays high school football and their WR’s are all getting replaced, but they usually plug that position in with smart white kids that run good routes and catch the football. They’ll have a tough defense that will keep them in every game plus a joke of a non-conference schedule and you have a good season that will end in Phoenix because of Big Ten bowl rules wanting drunken Badger fans in the Alamodome.

T-5) Wisconsin (8-4, 4-4; Alamo Bowl): Badger fans can thank the schedule as it sets up rather nicely for a .500 season and a sweep of the non-conference schedule. The Badgers still have the same problem at QB as they have the past 2 seasons and that’s that they don’t have a quality one on scholarship. Plus their defense is slow & bad. They should be able to run the ball though with Clay & Brown to keep them off the field. They miss Illinois on the schedule which is good for Wisconsin because their offense is the one that would give Wisconsin nightmares in 2009.

T-5) Minnesota 7-5, 4-4, At-Large Bowl): I think the Gophers are a better team but it won’t show much due to the schedule. The OL should be better, which was the main problem with everything down the stretch last year. Returning a plethora of starters on both sides helps and the depth is better too, allowing for an injury to not derail the season. Biggest prediction: Gophers will go 2-2 during their stretch of death @ Penn State, @ Ohio State, Michigan State & Illinois. Most probable loss of the bunch will be @ Ohio State.

9) Michigan (7-5, 3-5, Motor City Bowl): Talent should be better as will being one more year experienced in RichRod’s system. And the non-conference schedule is a joke minus Notre Dame coming to town. As long as they can keep guys from leaving campus to head elsewhere, they can make it happen. The city of Detroit will be happy to have Michigan at Ford Field for revenue purposes.

10) Purdue (2-10, 1-7, no bowl): Purdue’s defense is a bit underrated and is pretty decent, but their offense will be atrocious. Throw in a non-conference schedule that includes a trip to Oregon and underrated Northern Illinois coming into town and you have a bright spot of winning the Oaken Bucket for Purdue.

11) Indiana (2-10, 0-8): They’re finishing up their stadium renovation, which should help. But their offense is bad, their defense lacks athletes, and they have a coach that’s only there because the previous one died due to cancer. At least they have a quality basketball program…eRRRRRRRRRRR!